Washington is again lining up behind Israel's terms on Gaza, bad news for Palestinians hoping the ceasefire holds and for anyone expecting the US to act as a neutral broker.

• Jared Kushner said rebuilding Gaza will not start until Hamas is disarmed, with weapons handovers and tunnel closures expected over the next few months.
• He added that if Hamas does not comply, Israel will have more American support to "finish the job" — a green light for renewed fighting.
• Critics say this fits a long pattern of US presidents bending to pro-Israel pressure, with billionaire donors pouring money into elections since the Citizens United ruling opened the floodgates.
• Pro-Israel groups have already spent roughly $150 million this election cycle and could reach a quarter of a billion dollars, yet they are winning fewer races as public opinion turns.
• The bigger worry is at home: the push to punish campus critics and deport activists is squeezing free speech in the US.

Outlook: Expect a shaky ceasefire over the next two to three months, with Israel likely to resume strikes if disarmament stalls.