A grim read on the Iran conflict, with Washington losing ground militarily and financially, bad news for oil markets, Europe, and anyone holding dollars.

• The war with Iran is seen as strategically lost, and Trump is now blaming NATO allies for not helping, hinting the US may pull out of the alliance.
• Israel bombed targets in Syria that Turkey was inspecting, putting a NATO member and Israel on a collision course.
• The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut despite Trump saying it is open, and gas has hit $4 a gallon in the US while diesel spikes in Europe.
• US national debt just crossed $40 trillion, the bond market is falling, and the Treasury is buying debt to hold rates down — a fix seen as temporary.
• More countries are moving toward BRICS and away from the dollar, and the risk of a tactical nuclear weapon being used is real because Iran, unlike 1945 Japan, has Russia and China backing it.

Outlook: Expect worse fuel shortages and street unrest in Europe, no talks with Iran, and growing pressure on the dollar in the months ahead.