Trump is pulling back US military support for South Korea because Seoul refused to help in the Iran war — bad news for South Korea, Ukraine, and anyone counting on US security guarantees.

• Trump ordered a big cut to the annual joint military exercises with South Korea, praising Kim Jong-un as "unthreatening and respectful."
• The real trigger: South Korea's president said no when asked to help with the Iran operation.
• US missile interceptors are running low, and what's left is being moved to the Middle East for Israel — leaving South Korea and Ukraine exposed.
• North Korea has run two dozen ballistic missile tests since Trump returned to office and is deepening ties with Russia.
• The drills genuinely are provocative — North Korea calls them a rehearsal for war — but scrapping them as punishment for an ally sends a different message.

Outlook: Expect North Korea to keep testing missiles and US allies to start questioning whether American protection now depends on backing Israel's wars.