Taiwan's economy is growing at a stunning pace thanks to the AI boom, but that good news may not translate into votes for the ruling party — a puzzle for President Lai Ching-te ahead of next year's elections.

• Taiwan's government now expects the economy to grow 11% this year, up from an earlier 10% forecast, driven by global demand for AI chips.
• With tax revenue surging, Lai announced a cash handout of NT$10,000 per person in next year's budget, funded without new borrowing.
• Combined with a similar handout pushed through by the opposition-led legislature last year, a family of four will have received NT$80,000 in total.
• Most people at home still say the economy is bad — polling shows just under 40% think it's good, while over half say it isn't.
• The split is almost entirely partisan: ruling-party supporters say the economy is strong, while roughly 70% of opposition supporters say it's weak.

Outlook: Japanese political scholar Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, who has repeatedly called Taiwan's election results correctly, expects the usual rule that a strong economy helps incumbents to break down in Taiwan, where voters judge the economy by their party rather than their wallets.