Iran has been quietly rebuilding its military during the 60-day truce with the US, a sign that the ceasefire is unlikely to hold and that a wider war is the more probable outcome.

• Iran has ramped up missile and drone production, repaired bases hit by US strikes, and put hardline Revolutionary Guard commanders in charge of the army.
• Iran expects more fighting once the truce expires, so it treated the pause as time to reload — the same thing the US and Israel did, with tens of thousands of American troops moving into the region.
• The internal crackdown inside Iran is partly a hunt for Israeli spies, after Mossad penetration that led to the killing of Iranian commanders and scientists.
• Iran struck ships in the Gulf after the US started routing traffic around the agreed passage, which would have stripped Iran of its main piece of leverage.
• The fighting has spread to the Red Sea, where the Houthis are blocking Saudi oil shipments.

Outlook: Both sides are rearming rather than negotiating, and any real deal looks parked until after Israel's elections.