Bad news for Bitcoin holders: history says the back half of a losing August tends to fall hard.

• Looking at August as a whole hides the pattern — the first two weeks lean slightly up, the last two slightly down.
• But when August is closing red, the last two weeks are the killer, dropping 9.4% on average.
• Applied to Bitcoin right now, a 9% drop from here would push it to new lows.
• The setup matters because this August is shaping up red, so the seasonal weak spot is directly ahead.

Outlook: If the red-August pattern holds, expect Bitcoin to slide into fresh lows over the last two weeks of the month.