Bad news for markets and the world economy, as a widening US-Iran standoff pushes up borrowing costs and threatens to choke off oil.

• The US says its naval blockade of Iranian ports could last indefinitely, and is promising economic pressure on Iran "never seen before" — raising fears of a forever war.
• Government bond yields rose because that blockade and endless sanctions mean the US has to borrow more, making the bond market a possible brake on the whole thing.
• Oil is the pressure point: US refineries are running near full capacity, reserves will eventually run dry, and one breakdown or storm could send prices spiking.
• The US sent NATO allies a document effectively asking how loyal they are to Trump, whether they buy US weapons, and whether they oppose rules that hurt US firms.
• On the economy, everything hangs on AI: OpenAI revenue tops $40 billion ahead of a planned IPO, but cheap Chinese rivals are turning it into a race to the bottom, and cheaper Chinese cars are flooding export markets.

Outlook: With no off-ramp in sight, expect higher oil prices, higher borrowing costs, and more strain on both Iran and the global economy in the near term.