Trump is shifting from military strikes to an extreme economic blockade of Iran, and it could push inflation higher and rattle markets.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to unveil an "unprecedented" plan next week to choke off Iran's trade, revenue, and supplies.
• The plan could bring new sanctions on China and India for buying Iranian oil, plus pressure on Russia-Iran trade routes through the Caspian Sea.
• More chokepoints — the Strait of Hormuz, the Caspian Sea, the Red Sea — mean higher costs for oil, metals, and food, which feeds long-term inflation.
• Government bond yields are climbing, with longer-term rates rising faster than short-term ones, a sign markets expect higher inflation for years.
• Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are racing to build pipelines and new ports to avoid Hormuz entirely.

Outlook: Details land next week, and if the blockade widens, expect more market jitters and stubborn inflation rather than a quick Iran deal.