A new armed group is hitting the Taliban hard at the worst possible moment, which is bad news for the regime and a sign Afghanistan may be sliding back toward civil war.

• A group called the Afghan United Front launched a wave of coordinated attacks starting August 1, killing Taliban fighters and intelligence officers across at least eight provinces.
• It is led by Sami Sadat, a former top Afghan special-operations general with deep ties to Western militaries and US intelligence, and it runs an office in Virginia — pointing to likely foreign backing.
• The group is deliberately striking in the Taliban's southern heartland around Kandahar, where the supreme leader lives, breaking the claim that resistance only exists in the north.
• The Taliban are already stretched thin: a border war with Pakistan, a violent breakaway faction in the north fighting over gold mines, ISIS attacks, and a collapsing economy with worsening hunger.
• No single group can topple the Taliban alone, but together they are pulling at the regime from every direction while public anger keeps rising.

Outlook: Expect the attacks to keep spreading and the Taliban's grip to weaken further, especially if outside powers like Pakistan and the US quietly feed the resistance.