Bitcoin is sliding into August and September — historically its weakest months — even as stocks hit records, and the near-term bias is bearish.

• July retail sales fell and consumer sentiment cratered, killing the odds of a September rate hike (now down to 32% from 50% a week ago).
• Stocks and gold are winning from this easy-money shift, but Bitcoin isn't getting the love — it just made a new weekly low near $62,500.
• August has closed red four years straight, and August plus September combined has been negative in eight of the last 12 years.
• Historically, a negative-closing August has dragged Bitcoin down big — a repeat could mean a slide toward $50,000.

Outlook: Downside is more likely near-term unless Bitcoin reclaims the mid-$64,000s, with a possible dip toward $60,000–61,000 or lower first.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bearish short-to-medium term while below the midband; not fully bearish unless a weekly close below ~$59,300–59,500.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Dip zone $59,500–$60,500; deeper interest near $57,900 and ~$50,000 on extreme downside.
• **Sell / take profit:** Short trade targets $62,000 (max profit zone), managing between $64,500 and $56,875.
• **Support:** $62,200 (August 1st low), then $60,600–$61,800.
• **Resistance:** $64,176 (weekly 200 SMA), $64,600 line in the sand, $65,444 (August 8th high).
• **Targets:** Downside $60,600–$61,800, then $59,500–$60,500; upside $67,000+ on reclaim.
• **Invalidation:** Reclaim of $64,600 (or a wick above $65,444) flips bias bullish; daily close below $62,200 confirms breakdown.