A new mutual-defense deal between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan could pull the U.S. into unwanted conflicts and marks another Gulf state drifting away from Washington.

• The three countries signed a pact promising that if any one is attacked, the other two treat it as an attack on themselves and join the fight.
• The tricky part is Turkey: as a NATO member, an attack on it can trigger NATO's mutual-defense rule, dragging the U.S. and Europe in.
• That means if Israel ever hit Saudi Arabia or Pakistan and Turkey stepped in, the whole NATO alliance could be pulled toward a war with Israel.
• The bigger picture is Saudi Arabia inching away from the U.S. and closer to the BRICS group of countries, leaving America and Europe more isolated.

Outlook: Expect more Middle East states to hedge toward BRICS, loosening the region's old reliance on Washington.