The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is unexpectedly close, and Paxton is scrambling to shore up support on the economy.

• A widely watched election model now shows Democrats with a slight edge to take both the Senate and the House this fall.
• In Texas, Talarico holds a narrow lead in polling averages, though one fresh poll puts Paxton up by a point.
• Paxton is running scared, rolling out an unusually generous plan: big tax breaks for medical costs, free weight-loss drugs, a doubled child tax credit, and a $50,000 break for first-time homebuyers.
• Voters' top worry is the cost of living, so Republicans are trying to blunt Democrats' economic edge rather than just attack Talarico as too far left.
• The wild card is whether South Texas Latinos, who swung hard to Trump, revert to 2018 patterns — plus polling has badly understated or overstated turnout before.

Outlook: The race stays a genuine tossup, hinging on Latino turnout, a flood of new white college-educated transplants, and whether Democratic enthusiasm holds through November.