Trump's naval blockade of Iran has hardened into an open-ended standoff, and new evidence suggests the US military is dangerously unprepared for the kind of fight Iran can now bring — bad news for anyone hoping this ends soon.

• Trump claims total control of the Strait of Hormuz, but oil is still quietly slipping through and Iran is settling in to outlast the pressure rather than fold.
• Iran has shifted to a survival economy — rationing goods, limiting foreign currency, squeezing its people — and its economy is shrinking but far from collapsing.
• In a mock war game against Ukraine, US and NATO forces got clobbered by cheap drone-swarm tactics, the same methods Iran used to break through US air defenses in Jordan and kill service members.
• The US is burning through expensive interceptor missiles it cannot replace fast enough — new orders take three to five years to arrive — while Iran keeps studying Russian and Ukrainian drone tactics.
• Gas has climbed to around $4.70 a gallon, already hurting ordinary Americans, even in pro-Trump areas where "thank a Republican" signs are popping up.

Outlook: This looks like a years-long conflict with no exit, and if Iran's people start truly starving, it may go fully unrestricted and drive oil toward $200.