Bitcoin looks weak in the short and medium term after failing to break past a key level, which is bad for buyers hoping for a bounce but good news for anyone betting on a drop.

• Bitcoin keeps getting rejected at $64,600 and slipped below $63,000, keeping the bias bearish until it can close back above that line.
• Fresh inflation data came in soft, but Bitcoin failed to rally on it — a weak sign.
• Odds of a Fed rate hike in September have dropped to around 32%, and no hikes are expected for the rest of the year.
• History shows that when August is red for Bitcoin, the back half of the month tends to be ugly, averaging a 9% drop that would push Bitcoin to new lows.
• Traditional markets look strong — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, with the breakout from the spring-to-summer range still intact.

Outlook: The next week is the danger window; Bitcoin is expected to keep sliding and likely break its late-July low near $62,500 unless it reclaims $64,600.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bearish short and medium term while below $64,600
• **Sell / take profit:** Shorted futures near $64,000–$64,850; short $66,000 calls and $62,000 puts
• **Support:** $62,500 (July higher low), then $61,800
• **Resistance:** $64,600 pivot, $65,300
• **Targets:** Downside toward $61,800 and new lows (~9% lower); profit zone roughly $55,875–$65,000
• **Invalidation:** Daily CME close above $64,600 flips the bias bullish