Israel stands to gain the most from the Iran war, potentially turning itself into the region's main oil route — a bad outcome for the US, Iran, and the Palestinians.

• With Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and Houthis attacking Red Sea shipping, Gulf oil producers need a new way to export, and Israel is pushing itself as the answer.
• The plan: pipelines across Saudi Arabia into Israel and up to its Mediterranean ports, bypassing both chokepoints — Netanyahu and top Israeli officials have openly promoted it.
• Building it would require a Saudi-Israel peace deal, which could pressure Saudi Arabia to abandon its demand for a Palestinian state.
• Israel has also opened new offshore gas fields and hooked Egypt and Jordan on its gas, while the US is left with huge costs, drained missile stockpiles, and oil reserves at their lowest since 1983.

Outlook: Expect a hard push to get Saudi Arabia to normalize with Israel, though anger among ordinary Arabs over Gaza remains a real obstacle.