A bad night for pollsters and for the left's insurgent wing, as a candidate who looked like a runaway winner barely lost.

• DSA candidate Franchesca Hong led by double digits in Wisconsin polls but lost the Democratic governor primary to David Crowley by a hair.
• It's another big polling miss: her support was people who answered surveys and posted online, not people who turned out to vote.
• Her campaign got dragged into culture-war fights — like an old "cancel Thanksgiving" post she defended badly on CNN — instead of the economy, which is where left-wing candidates tend to win.
• Republicans quietly spent millions boosting Hong, betting a "too liberal" attack would scare swing voters her way in the general.
• Rural anger over high diesel, gas, and fertilizer prices is now the central issue, and it's showing up elsewhere — a Democratic megachurch pastor is polling dead even with GOP Senator Roger Marshall in deep-red Kansas.

Outlook: The midterms look set to turn on economic pain, with rural voters deciding whether Republicans hold on or Democrats break through.