A debate over whether Bitcoin's famous four-year price cycle still holds, with a cautious, neutral-to-skeptical take.

• The four-year cycle — where Bitcoin booms and busts on a roughly four-year rhythm tied to the halving — has never yet failed, so it technically still stands.
• But the last cycle looked different: Bitcoin hit a new high before the halving and never went fully parabolic the way it did in past runs.
• The safer stance is not to bet everything on the cycle holding, since patterns like this don't last forever.
• There are real reasons to think the cycle could break — ideally by Bitcoin no longer crashing hard, though a darker version where it just keeps falling is also possible.

Outlook: The cycle remains intact for now, but expect it to weaken or break as Bitcoin matures, with the direction of that break still unknown.