Israel is getting bogged down in southern Lebanon, and a deal meant to end the occupation is falling apart — bad news for displaced Lebanese and for anyone hoping to avoid another long war.

• A first-of-its-kind deal had Israel slowly pulling out while the Lebanese army moved in to disarm Hezbollah, but the handover has crawled along and only three villages have changed hands.
• Hezbollah restarted drone attacks in late July, and Israel responded by freezing all further withdrawals and threatening to push deeper into the country.
• Israel's army has been caught flat-footed by cheap Iranian-style FPV drones, falling back on shotguns and netting and even publicly begging for anti-drone ideas.
• Over a million Lebanese are still displaced, and fresh Israeli strikes have hit towns north of the line Israel itself claimed as its limit.
• Netanyahu has little reason to leave: a national election on October 27 will turn on security, and pulling out with Hezbollah still armed would look like surrender.

Outlook: With the drone problem unsolved and an election looming, Israel looks set to stay in southern Lebanon for a long time, echoing its 18-year occupation.