Iran looks weak and rudderless as questions swirl over whether its supreme leader survived Israeli air strikes — bad news for the regime, which may be hiding an incapacitated leader.

• Iran's president was reportedly driven to a secret meeting and allowed only minutes with a man in a dark, tinted-window car said to be the supreme leader — but he couldn't see him and later doubted it was really him.
• The new supreme leader, who took over after his father was killed on February 28th, has not appeared in public, released no video or audio, and may have been badly wounded in the strike — possibly losing an eye and a leg.
• Multiple leaks and reports point to the same picture: an injured, disfigured leader hidden from view, leaving no one sure who is actually running the country.
• The timing of the story is suspicious, landing as the U.S. and Iran negotiate and Washington sees that Iran's economy is in ruins, giving America more leverage.
• Iran watches U.S. politics closely and believes the war is dragging down Trump's popularity heading into the midterms.

Outlook: Expect continued uncertainty over Iran's leadership and more pressure on the regime as its economy weakens and nuclear talks drag on.