The July jobs report was bad for workers but good for stocks, because a weak labor market makes the Fed less likely to raise interest rates.
- The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, far short of the 83,000 gain that was expected, and past months were revised down by another 103,000.
- The unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%, but only because more people gave up looking for work and stopped being counted.
- Wages grew slower than prices, so the average worker is effectively taking a pay cut as living costs rise faster than pay.
- AI is now the top reason for job cuts, driving heavy layoffs in tech even though the technology is still losing money.
- Stocks rallied because a weak job market pushes the Fed toward cheap money, and the odds of a September rate hike dropped from 67% to about 52%.
Outlook: This week's inflation report will shift the odds again, but a rate hike in September looks unlikely, partly due to political pressure on the Fed.