Trump is backing away from another Iran war, leaving a tense standoff over the Strait of Hormuz that keeps gas prices high but hasn't erupted into new fighting.

• Trump has quietly dropped plans for a new bombing campaign, partly because the US military says it lacks the munitions to keep fighting.
• Iran issued a long list of demands to reopen Hormuz — end sanctions, pay damages, pull US forces back — but this is really a push to restart direct talks, not a literal price for the strait.
• Iran is dragging out the standoff on purpose, betting more pain will force Trump into a lasting deal instead of another failed strike.
• Gas is around $4 a gallon; oil prices are being held down artificially and are expected to jump higher once that breaks.
• Saudi Arabia, Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a new defense pact, a sign regional powers no longer trust the US security umbrella.

Outlook: Expect slow, indirect negotiations through Oman rather than open war, with oil prices likely to climb once the artificial suppression fades.