Michigan's Senate race is shaping up as a test of whether a populist Democrat can win a battleground state, with the primary winner leaning into an affordability message.

• Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary and is now the favorite, running on cost of living, healthcare, and opposition to foreign wars and data centers.
• Hillary Clinton advised him to focus on winning over Haley voters and independents rather than Republicans — advice mocked as tone-deaf given she lost Michigan twice.
• Republicans are attacking him as a "communist" and "socialist" and pushing his full name and his wife's hijab, but that may fall flat in a state with a large Muslim population.
• His opponent, Mike Rogers, is pitching himself as a moderate refuge for disaffected Democrats, echoing a 2016-style Clinton message.
• With Trump's economic approval sharply underwater, the mood favors any Democrat in Michigan, and El-Sayed is drawing broad party support, including from Harris and Obama outreach.

Outlook: El-Sayed enters the general election as the likely winner, with the race hinging on turnout among Black and Arab-American voters rather than the "socialist" attacks.