The Iran conflict looks set to last far longer than hoped, which is bad news for markets and anyone counting on a quick peace.

• Iran hit another ship in the Strait of Hormuz in the last day and issued its toughest list of demands yet, signaling it thinks it holds more leverage.
• JD Vance said the conflict is only at its "middle" point, implying at least another year of fighting from here.
• With Iran unwilling to end things, a deal is nowhere close, and talk of a quick agreement looks aimed mainly at calming markets.
• The 12 days of heavy strikes, pushed by Israel over military advice that it would backfire, seem to have made Iran dig in harder.

Outlook: Expect the fighting to grind on, with rising risk of a market shock once investors accept the war is far from over — and even the chance of US ground troops.