The July jobs report came in weak
The US job market looks weaker than the official numbers suggest, which is bad for workers and risky for anyone piling money into stocks.
- Hiring shrank in July instead of growing, the first outright drop in five months and far below what forecasters expected.
- The government quietly revised the prior two months down by more than 100,000 jobs combined, a pattern of rosy first numbers followed by ugly corrections.
- The jobless rate ticked down only because people are giving up on finding work, not because more of them got hired.
- Job quality is slipping: part-time work is near a record high while full-time jobs are being cut as companies dodge benefit costs.
- Wages rose barely at all and are not keeping up with inflation, so paychecks buy less.
Outlook: Expect the economy to keep weakening beneath the headline figures, with the stock market vulnerable if reality catches up to the data.