Sudan's army has scored its biggest wins in over a year, and for once a peace deal on its terms looks possible.

• The SAF seized a key highway linking the capital to Elabade, breaking the RSF's grip and reconnecting supply lines to the besieged city.
• A wave of RSF commander defections handed the army detailed intelligence on enemy supply routes, air defenses, and weak points.
• The RSF is fraying from within, as its loot-sharing patronage system breaks down and factions turn on each other.
• Foreign help is flowing to the SAF — new weapons from Pakistan, and Egyptian airstrikes cutting off RSF arms coming through Libya.
• Most experts still doubt a total knockout, since the RSF holds much of western Sudan and keeps getting money and arms from the UAE.

Outlook: The army will likely keep pushing to build leverage, aiming for a negotiated peace from a position of strength rather than an outright victory this year.