SpaceX stock is bouncing hard, but the real selling pressure and the shaky pricing behind its AI business haven't shown up yet — a warning sign for buyers chasing the rally.

• SpaceX stock jumped as investors bought the dip, betting the worst is over after a share lockup expired without a sell-off.
• But the selling hasn't actually started — shares must clear a slow paperwork process before insiders can unload them, and more lockups are coming that could flood the market.
• The bigger worry is SpaceX charging 3 to 5 times the going rate to rent out AI computing power, with the only proof coming from Google and Anthropic, who both have reasons to want SpaceX to look good.
• If those rich rental rates can't be renewed or matched by new customers, SpaceX's rosy projections fall apart — and rivals like CoreWeave and Nebius may be the better bet.
• Elon Musk's grand "Terafab" chip plant is exciting but years away, facing Texas power and water audits and long permit timelines — treat it as a bet on 2030, not now.

Outlook: Expect more big swings in SpaceX stock as the delayed insider selling hits and the market tests whether its premium AI pricing can actually hold.