US pressure on Iran appears to be failing, and a scramble for "creative" new tactics suggests there is no real strategy — bad news for anyone hoping the conflict winds down cleanly.

• Reports say US forces were asked for "creative and unconventional" ways to punish Iran, a sign that bombing, blockades, and sanctions have all failed to force Iran to bend.
• Weeks of heavy airstrikes could not destroy Iran's missile factories, which are buried deep under mountains and hard to hit even with the biggest weapons.
• A signed deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fell apart earlier, and a new version brokered with Oman may now be close, which could let oil and shipping flow again.
• The US has been dumping record amounts of diesel and fuel overseas while draining its emergency oil reserves to hold gas prices down, a short-term fix that could backfire into shortages.
• China, by contrast, stockpiled cheap oil years ago and can ride out high prices for months, leaving the US in a far weaker spot.

Outlook: If the Oman-Iran deal reopens the strait and holds, oil traffic slowly returns; if it collapses again, fuel shortages and the risk of renewed war grow.