Bitcoin's long bear market is likely near its end, which is bad for anyone still waiting for a crash to $40K but good for patient buyers who understand the bottom is close.

• Bitcoin sits about 50% below its October 2025 peak and is dragging through a quiet, boring bear market.
• For the first time, a key support band near $59,000 is not holding firm, so one more drop lower is technically possible.
• A long-term on-chain measure (market value vs. realized value) says the true bottom only forms when Bitcoin's price falls below what holders actually paid — it hasn't yet.
• Bear markets tend to last about 12 months, pointing to a final low around October 2026.
• The message: it's "game over" for the doom crowd and for those hoping to buy at $40–50K, because trying to nail the exact bottom is a losing game.

Outlook: One last capitulation dip is possible before a bottom, with the market low expected around October 2026.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Near-term cautious (one more dip possible), long-term bullish
• **Buy / accumulate:** Massive limit long between $50,000–$55,000 if price breaks lower
• **Support:** $59,000 (key band that must hold)
• **Invalidation / trigger:** A break below $58,000 opens the door to the $50–55K buy zone
• **Targets:** Bottom seen near the realized-cap line, roughly $50,000–$55,000