A mixed but mostly negative picture: stocks are hitting record highs while most Americans say the economy feels worse and the Fed is now talking about raising rates.

• A deal may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it looks like an Iran–Oman arrangement over shipping lanes, not a US–Iran deal, and Iran says it would only last two to four months.
• The US has nearly run out of long-range missiles, so Iran feels it can stall and wait out Trump until the November elections.
• The Fed is worried inflation is stuck after five years of price shocks, and some officials want to raise rates three times this year — risky when growth and jobs are already weak.
• Stocks are at all-time highs and 401(k)s are up, but people without good jobs don't feel it, and layoffs keep coming — Etsy just cut 12% of staff while companies lean on AI as an excuse to shrink.
• Voter anger is fueling political change, with Abdul El-Sayed winning Michigan's Democratic Senate primary on a message of ending foreign wars and lowering the cost of groceries, gas, and healthcare.

Outlook: A temporary Hormuz deal may calm oil worries short-term, but a hawkish Fed, a slowing job market, and rising political discontent point to a rougher road ahead.