The progressive left scored a big win as Abdul El-Sayed took Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, a strong sign for populist candidates but a setup for a tough general election.

• El-Sayed beat Haley Stevens by about 1.5 points, far tighter than polls that had him up double digits.
• Stevens outspent him roughly 11-to-1, backed by $62 million, Whitmer's endorsement, and ads implying Obama supported her.
• Late Detroit-area absentee votes from older voters nearly erased his lead, exposing a big polling miss on who would turn out.
• Other left candidates also won: Will Lawrence in mid-Michigan and, so far, Donovan McKinney unseating incumbent Shri Thanedar.
• One loss for the left: Cori Bush was crushed by Wesley Bell in Missouri, hurt by attack ads over her missed votes.

Outlook: El-Sayed now faces Republican Mike Rogers in a close swing-state race, with much of the Democratic establishment unlikely to fully rally behind him.