The US has burned through almost all its long-range precision missiles fighting Iran, leaving it with few real military options — bad for American war plans, good for Iran's bargaining position.

• A leaked government assessment says the US has used up nearly all its long-range precision missiles and about half its Tomahawks in five months of war with Iran.
• Replacements won't start rolling off production lines until 2027, so there's no quick way to rebuild the stockpile.
• The US leaned so hard on these missiles because it fears sending pilots over Iran, where planes have been shot down — meaning it never won control of the skies.
• With the military drained, Iran sees no reason to negotiate and says talks Trump claims are happening simply aren't real.
• Oil is stuck high because most tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed, keeping gas above $5 in some states even as Exxon and Chevron post record profits.

Outlook: Any deal to reopen the strait will likely come from Oman, Qatar, and Iran on Iran's terms, not from a US that has run out of ways to force the issue.