AI is warned to be one giant loss-leader trap, and that's bad news for the thousands of startups renting access to models like OpenAI's.

• OpenAI loses money on every dollar it earns, burning up to $25 billion in 2026 and not expecting profit until close to 2030.
• Cheap AI prices were bait paid for by investors — once the money runs out, prices have to jump for customers who can't easily switch.
• Most AI startups are "wrappers" built on someone else's model, so one price change on an invoice can wipe them out in weeks.
• Model owners also copy their best customers' products and fold them in for free, a move that already gutted writing tool Jasper after ChatGPT launched.
• The escape route is owning your own models — free options like Meta's Llama and DeepSeek let firms control costs and data instead of being held hostage.

Outlook: As OpenAI eyes an IPO and needs hundreds of billions in fresh funding, expect prices to rise, weaker startups to fold, and big firms to move to running their own models.