MicroStrategy has stayed stuck near its summer lows even as Bitcoin has climbed, showing how leveraged bets can lag the asset they track.

• Bitcoin has bounced well off its July lows, but MicroStrategy hasn't followed and is still sitting near the bottom.
• MicroStrategy trades like a leveraged Bitcoin bet, so when price swings are small it fails to capture Bitcoin's gains.
• This "volatility decay" means the stock can underperform Bitcoin even when the coin is rising.
• A bounce looks likely from here, with a possible move toward the 120-130 area later this quarter.

Outlook: MicroStrategy is expected to bounce, potentially reaching 120-130 this quarter, though the timing is uncertain.