Bitcoin heads into August with a weak seasonal track record, but the setup this year looks less dangerous than usual.

• August is historically a bad month for Bitcoin, closing down 8 of the last 11 years, including the last 4 in a row.
• Past August drops were driven by traders using too much borrowed money getting forced out of their positions.
• That "fuel" was already burned off in late June, when Bitcoin fell just below $50,000 and the over-leveraged bets got wiped out.
• Because that flush already happened, positioning going into this August is cleaner and less prone to a sharp forced sell-off.

Outlook: Seasonality points down, but with leverage already cleared out, another steep August crash is less likely than in past years.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Neutral — weak seasonality offset by healthier positioning
• **Support:** ~$50,000 (June low was just below it)