Trump backed off a threatened major strike on Iran, a sign of weakness for a US position that looks increasingly stuck.

• Trump publicly threatened massive strikes on Iran, then canceled, claiming a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but Iran denies any such deal and says the blockade stays.
• Iran is still firing on tankers and holding its ground, betting Trump has no real military option and will eventually have to accept its control of the strait.
• US Central Command sent an email begging military analysts for "creative and unconventional" ideas to pressure Iran — a sign Washington is out of workable plans.
• Saudi Crown Prince MBS personally urged Trump not to strike, fearing Iran would hit oil sites in Saudi Arabia and send prices soaring.
• Iran may have hacked US water systems in several states as a warning shot, showing it can strike back even without reaching American soil.

Outlook: Expect a long, grinding standoff with no war and no peace, oil prices swinging up and down, until an economic or political crisis forces Trump's hand.