Oil prices fell sharply after Trump said Iran talks are close, but the "deal" looks shaky and could reverse fast — bad for anyone betting on cheap oil sticking.

• Oil dropped more than 5% after Trump said a rough outline of a deal with Iran was agreed and he called off planned strikes.
• The deal is vague — Trump talks about "perimeters of a deal," while Iran says there are no direct talks with the US, only indirect talks with Oman over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Most of oil's recent price swings are a war-risk premium of $20–25 a barrel, not real supply and demand, so prices jump and crash on every headline.
• The conflict is dragging into its sixth month with no clear win, and US commanders are reportedly emailing troops asking for "creative" new ideas to pressure Iran.
• Jordan is paying a price for its close US ties, getting hit by Iranian missiles and drones while its own people blame Trump for pulling them into the war.

Outlook: Expect oil to keep swinging wildly on each rumor, and prices could snap back up fast if these fragile talks fall apart.