A new poll shows Abdul El-Sayed opening a big lead over Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, a blow to the party establishment and its heavy backers.

• El-Sayed leads Stevens 54 to 39 in a fresh Emerson poll, days before the election, despite being massively outspent.
• Pro-Israel groups like AIPAC have poured tens of millions into the race against El-Sayed, with some estimates topping $60 million.
• Stevens is running on being "electable" and having Governor Whitmer's backing, while dodging questions on her ICE votes, the outside money, and the Middle East.
• El-Sayed is running a populist pitch — Medicare for all, higher wages, getting money out of politics — and a debate audience poll gave him the win 95 to 5.
• There's a sharp age split: younger voters back El-Sayed heavily, while voters over 60 lean toward Stevens.

Outlook: If the poll holds, El-Sayed wins next Tuesday's primary, a signal that big outside spending and establishment media are losing their grip on Democratic voters.