Bitcoin is stuck in a short-term bearish setup, with limited downside expected but no confirmed bottom yet — cautious news for traders.

• Bitcoin closed July below its monthly pivot, so a lasting bottom can't be confirmed yet.
• The key line is the daily midband near $64,450; below it, the bias stays down.
• August is historically one of Bitcoin's weakest months, with a typical loss of about 7-9%.
• Prediction markets put the odds of Bitcoin dipping under $60,000 this month above a coin flip.
• Downside looks limited — new lows aren't expected unless the whole picture breaks.

Outlook: A daily close back above the midband opens a path toward $67,000-$70,000; failure points to a retest near $61,000.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bearish short-term and medium-term while below the midband; downside seen as limited.
• **Buy / accumulate:** $60,500-$61,500 zone (around $61,000).
• **Sell / take profit:** Short $66,500 calls held; closing into strength.
• **Support:** $61,800 (prior higher low), then $61,000; deeper $59,000 and $57,000 if August closes negative.
• **Resistance:** $64,450-$64,561 midband (must reclaim on a daily CME close).
• **Targets:** Upside $67,000, then $69,000-$72,000; downside $61,000, worst case $57,000.
• **Invalidation:** A daily close back above $64,561 flips the short-term bias bullish; new lows below the range break the "no new lows" thesis.