US markets open with cautious hope as Trump signals progress toward ending the Iran-Israel conflict, but the strike-retaliate-negotiate cycle keeps repeating.

• Trump says talks are moving forward, with indirect dialogue continuing through Oman and Gulf states pushing him to hold off on new strikes.
• A US naval blockade of Iran's ports is costing the country hundreds of millions of dollars a day and choking its oil exports, pressuring the regime to make a deal or return to war.
• US gas prices are stuck around $4 a gallon, keeping the economy the top issue heading into the midterms.
• Big American companies are posting strong profits while regular people face higher costs — a "K-shaped" split where the rich pull ahead and everyone else falls behind.
• Rising settler attacks in the occupied West Bank and US military aid to Israel are framed as roadblocks to any lasting Middle East peace.

Outlook: Ceasefire talks continue with no firm deadline, so expect more of the same on-and-off tension until Iran either signs a deal or fighting resumes.