A veteran chart analyst argues Bitcoin's usual four-year boom-bust cycle may be broken, meaning the low might already be here instead of coming in October 2026 — cautiously bullish for long-term buyers, but the near-term trend is still down.

• The four-year cycle looks off because Bitcoin made a new high before this last halving and then topped early at $126K, breaking the historical pattern.
• Right now Bitcoin is stuck in a $57K–$67K range with weak momentum, and sellers are still technically in control.
• Support in the upper $50s to low $60s keeps holding, which is read as heavy long-term buying interest — the "back the truck up" zone for multi-year spot holds.
• The key test is whether August closes above about $65K; a monthly close below that opens the door to a much deeper drop toward $40K.
• News and fundamentals are dismissed as noise — the view is that crowd mood moves price first, and the charts already reflect it.

Outlook: If support in the $53K–$60K area holds, Bitcoin should climb back above $100K fairly quickly; if it breaks, the next real floor is near $40K.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Cautiously bullish long-term, still bearish/down-trending near-term (bears in control).
• **Buy / accumulate:** $61,200 on the 4-hour; deeper $58K–$59K; main "back the truck up" spot zone $53K–$60K; strong interest at $57K–$58K.
• **Sell / take profit:** $62,667 (4-hour shallow fib); longer-term take-profit targets $194K, then $209K, up to $305K.
• **Support:** $57,700 recent low; $60,833 critical weekly buy; $64,618 monthly 61.8% level.
• **Resistance:** $64,800 (bull zone); $65,401 daily level (needs three daily closes above); $66,447 on the 4-hour.
• **Targets:** ~$77,700 if daily breaks up; back above $100K if support holds; multi-year $194K–$305K.
• **Invalidation:** Monthly close below $64,618 (or trading below the July low); a break under $49K opens the path to ~$40K–$44K.