Trump is running a pressure campaign on Iran aimed at toppling its government, which is dangerous news for Iran's leaders and a sign of more conflict ahead.

• The real goal is regime collapse in Iran, and Trump's team believes it can be done.
• The tactic is good cop, bad cop: keep hitting Iran hard while offering a way out.
• The threat is blunt — keep it up and you get destroyed, and there's no way to stop it.
• The Gaza ceasefire deal is seen as the model for how this could play out.
• Claims that Trump backs down under pressure don't hold up when it comes to Iran.

Outlook: Expect continued pressure on Iran, with the Gaza deal held up as the template for forcing a change.