A geopolitical theory claims the US and Israel engineered the migrant surge into Spain's African enclave of Ceuta to punish Spain and break apart Europe — bad news for Spain and the EU if true.

• Tens of thousands of migrants poured from Morocco into the tiny Spanish enclave of Ceuta, echoing fears of Europe's 2015 migrant crisis.
• The claim: this was organized to punish Spain for blocking US airstrikes on Iran and for criticizing Israel, with Morocco rewarded for backing the Abraham Accords.
• The bigger prize is said to be the Strait of Gibraltar, a key shipping chokepoint that Morocco and its allies could control if Spain gives up Ceuta.
• Migration is framed as a new tool to pressure European countries and split the EU into rival nation-states.

Outlook: The prediction is Spain eventually loses Ceuta to Morocco, with similar chokepoint fights expected around the Strait of Malacca and Greenland.