Tesla may sell off its China car business so Musk can fold what's left into SpaceX, a move that looks more like a bailout than a bold plan.

• The Wall Street Journal reports Tesla is prepping to split off its China business through a spin-off, sale, or shutdown.
• The goal is to merge the American side with SpaceX, and Musk has a history of using SpaceX to prop up his struggling companies.
• Musk plans to spend at least $100 million backing Republicans in the midterms, which could ease the regulatory approvals such a deal would need.
• This comes as his stocks are crashing and a SpaceX lockup expires August 6, letting early investors cash out — many are already buying $10–30 million homes in Florida.
• The wider picture looks like a bubble: prediction markets let people bet on the weather and Taylor Swift's wedding, AI data centers are so huge insurers can't cover them, and weak GDP growth is being spun as strong by changing how inflation is counted.

Outlook: Watch the August 6 SpaceX lockup and whether the Tesla-China separation moves from rumor to a real deal.