A new poll shows progressive Abdul El-Sayed with a big lead over Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, a bad sign for the party establishment despite tens of millions spent to stop him.

• El-Sayed leads Stevens by a wide margin, even after over $74 million was spent on Stevens' behalf.
• His campaign is fueled by young voters, Bernie Sanders and union backing, and anger over U.S. support for Israel.
• There's a generational split among Black voters, not the clean racial divide the establishment expected.
• Backing from Gretchen Whitmer gave Stevens no bump, and Whitmer's own approval among Democratic voters has dropped sharply.
• Tension between the campaigns over Israel has turned ugly, and some El-Sayed supporters say they'll skip November if he loses.

Outlook: El-Sayed looks positioned to win the August 4th primary, but a chunk of voters on both sides may sit out the general election.