The Iran-US war is back in full swing and going badly for American power, with US bases under attack, oil prices climbing, and allies starting to turn away.

• Trump ordered heavy strikes across southern Iran overnight; Iran claims it destroyed three US F-35 jets and killed US personnel at a base in Jordan, though none of that is confirmed.
• For the first time, Iran struck first instead of just retaliating, betting that inflicting enough pain is the only way to force Trump into a real deal.
• Iran no longer trusts any deal — they point to broken promises after the last agreement, and to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia getting little even after giving in.
• Iran is choking off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and hitting energy targets as far as Egypt, aiming to block all Western routes out of the Middle East.
• Jordanians are publicly demanding US troops leave, a rare revolt that signals US bases across the region are becoming liabilities that drag allies into war.

Outlook: With neither side backing down and US military weakness now exposed, expect more escalation and higher oil prices in the near term.