Bitcoin is holding above key monthly pivots, and if it confirms them on tomorrow's monthly close, the case for a macro bottom being in gets much stronger — bullish for buyers.

• The Fed held rates steady and some officials even want hikes, but Bitcoin went up on the bad news anyway, which is often how bottoms form.
• Tomorrow's monthly close is the big test: closing above the pivots would flip several long-term signals bullish for the first time in about three years.
• Several indicators — monthly moving averages, a bi-weekly momentum signal, and a timing tool — all point to a low likely already put in around July.
• Low $60,000s is called a good long-term buy zone for anyone holding several years; a rally to the low $70,000s is expected in August if the pivots hold.
• Apple and Amazon earnings plus a strong bounce in tech stocks (Nasdaq, S&P) add to the risk-on backdrop.

Outlook: A monthly close above the pivots likely triggers a push toward the low $70,000s in August, but real confirmation only comes when Bitcoin flips its weekly trend by breaking above the May high near $82,500.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Cautiously bullish — high probability of a macro low, but not confirmed until the weekly trend flips.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Low $60,000s for long-term spot; a higher low above $60,000 (even $64K–$65K) after the first rally is a strong buy.
• **Sell / take profit:** Expects a rejection on the first push into the low $70,000s.
• **Support:** $64,350 (line in the sand), $63,750 (monthly 55 EMA), $64,566 CME (today's short-term reclaim level), $63,000-ish (yesterday's low).
• **Resistance:** $65,700 (this week's high — reclaim signals breakout), then toward $70,000.
• **Targets:** Low $70,000s near-term; gray-dot target ~$70K–$75K for August/September.
• **Invalidation:** A monthly close below the pivots weakens the thesis; only a weekly higher high above the May swing high (~$82,500) confirms the reversal, while fresh lower lows would keep the downtrend intact.