Growing daylight between Trump and Netanyahu over the Iran war signals trouble for the Israeli leader, who is fighting for political survival back home.

• A new poll found most Americans across every age group support arresting Netanyahu if he enters the US, with only MAGA voters and conservatives opposed.
• Trump publicly downplayed Israeli warnings about Iran rebuilding nuclear sites, saying he doesn't need Netanyahu telling him what to do.
• Their interests now split: Trump wants out of the Iran war because he sees it as a political loser, while Netanyahu needs a "forever war" to keep winning elections.
• Netanyahu, facing his toughest election challenge in years within months, is desperate for a Trump endorsement that Trump keeps dodging.
• Any real break is doubtful — Trump's financial ties in the Middle East usually pull him back toward Israel, and he only pushes back when an Arab leader forces his hand.

Outlook: Expect more public friction ahead of Israel's election, but no serious US break with Netanyahu unless Trump's business interests demand it.