Oil prices are swinging wildly as the Iran conflict flares back up, and the risk is heavily to the upside — bad news for anyone hoping gas prices come down.

• Oil dropped 5% after Iran signaled it would stop attacks if the US holds its pause, but that calm is already breaking.
• A tanker hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz and a drone struck near a US base, with Iran now demanding to control all shipping through the strait.
• If Iran closes the strait, oil could hit $200 a barrel — the 2008 record adjusted for today's prices — as global oil reserves are already running low.
• Asian countries are raising interest rates to fight the inflation from pricier oil, and turning to nuclear power to cut their reliance on the Middle East.
• Ukraine hit an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, and a possible Ukraine-UK drone factory deal raises questions about who profits.

Outlook: Oil stays volatile and biased higher, and the only easy way down is Trump backing off — which looks unlikely.