Libya could either reunite or slide back into war in 2026, and while there are hopeful signs, the odds still favor renewed fighting — bad news for a country already split for over a decade.

• Libya has been divided since 2020, with a corrupt UN-backed government in Tripoli and warlord Khalifa Haftar's family dynasty ruling the east from Tobruk.
• For the first time in over a decade, the two sides agreed on a shared national budget and even ran joint military drills led by US special forces, and Pakistan is quietly brokering peace talks.
• The catch: Haftar is arming fast, buying $4 billion in Pakistani jets, tanks, and drones plus UAE and Russian backing, tilting the balance of power his way.
• Foreign powers — Russia, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Europe — all want oil, control of migration, and a friendly government, making Libya a prime target for a new proxy war.
• Both leaders stay divided out of self-interest: each believes he can eventually win it all, and Tripoli's boss also fears he'd face a war-crimes tribunal if the country unifies.

Outlook: A peace deal is possible but shaky; as long as both sides profit from division, a return to war remains more likely than real reunification.