Bitcoin is nearing a monthly close that could mark the end of the bear phase — a positive setup for holders and buyers.

• The big signal is whether Bitcoin closes this month back above its 55-month moving average, which it lost last month.
• Every past reclaim of that line has marked the end of a bear market, in 2015, 2018 and again in 2018-19.
• A reclaim did not always mean an instant rally — in one case it took about half a year to build before the big move up.
• Holding above 63,750 into Friday's monthly close would be a key piece pointing to a major low being in.
• People betting on much lower prices from here are likely fooling themselves if this level holds.

Outlook: The trading month closes Friday with four days left, so the coming days decide whether this becomes a confirmed macro bottom.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish — a monthly close above the 55-month EMA would signal the bear market is over and a macro low is in.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Wicks/dips below the 55-month EMA have historically been long-term buys.
• **Support:** 63,750 (the 55-month EMA / monthly close level that must hold).
• **Invalidation:** A monthly close back below 63,750 (failing to reclaim the 55-month EMA).